A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, I met one of the most talented, creative and humorous guys I had ever known. 22 years later he came to me and asked me if he could try out his hand in writing. I asked him what he knows best, and his response was winning people money. How can I turn that down?
So, Wayniac Nation, welcome if you would my long time friend Jared, the self proclaimed Sportsbook Jesus (I pronounce it Hey Zues because it is simply more fun). He brings you six free picks to try and get your NFL season started off on the right foot. Good luck and
GMEN +6 (-105) @ COWBOYS -6 (-115)
First off, you should always be on high alert when betting on division opponents facing off. Division opponents know each other’s strengths and weaknesses better than anyone. Secondly, you should crank that alert up a notch when it’s week one. The fact is both teams for months have been essentially gearing their initial season plans of attack with this opponent specifically at the forefront of their minds. So, basically a divisional upset in the first game of the year is never out of the question. In fact, it should be highly considered when dealing with two teams like this being that they can match each other in terms of offensive firepower pretty evenly. Thirdly, just because this primetime matchup showcases my first two fantasy picks in Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham Jr., that in no way will lean me towards picking the OVER 51.5. It’s gonna be tough though. Real tough. You can’t let fantasy interests or your favorite team fool your gambling gut. It’s a recipe for sportsbook disaster.
As of 9/13 at 12:00AM EST, the betting trends show 62% of the public riding the COWBOYS to cover the -6, along with 59% taking COWBOYS Moneyline to win the game straight up. A lot of New York money could be waiting to pounce in the next 20 hours, so you have to take these trend numbers with a grain of salt (BETTING TRENDS DISCLAIMER — keep in mind that giving these predictions Saturday night gives plenty of time to have late money bets swing these trend percentages, which I base my analysis on, in numerous directions. You should ALWAYS check the trends and make your gambling picks no earlier than 15 minutes before the game. That is the Cardinal rule. Otherwise, you are relying on a betting analysis that is missing pieces like a jigsaw puzzle. By mid season, you should have a good idea of what I mean. Then we can start making some bank. At least, I hope we will).
This is a perfect example where I wouldn’t be shocked if the late New York money swung to the people’s choice of GMEN +6 in the 52-56% range. If the people end up riding the GMEN +6, I will flat out guarantee that the total points UNDER 51.5 is a lock. I’m already heavily leaning towards the UNDER 51.5 anyway, so that would absolutely seal the deal for me. To win this OVER 51.5, you need atleast 7 touchdowns(including extra points) and 1 field goal to cover by the skin of your teeth.
I know that this game seems like it’s gonna be a barnburner, but it won’t be. Maybe like a toolshed-burner or outhouse-burner, but the barn survives this one. I see both teams hovering somewhere in the 20s when it’s all said and done with the over coming up short by a hair. Currently, the public is riding with the OVER 51.5 at a hefty 71%. I’d be mildly surprised if Vegas pays out a percentage that high to the people on a national televised game between two of the biggest markets in the country in week one. In my experience, it usually pays off to take The House on these types of nights. This game is no different. I ride with Vegas and the UNDER 51.5 Sunday night.
I love Dallas this year, but I hate taking what I refer to as a “double favorite” (any favorite that has a return on your dollar below -110). -115 isn’t much of a value dip, but it still scares me off the Boys tonight. If it drops to -120, then I definitely wouldn’t go near it. Dallas wins, but New York covers.
GMEN +6(-105) & UNDER 51.5
EAGLES -3 (EVEN) @ FALCONS +3 (-120)
Homer Alert! Homer Alert! Yes, Philly is my NFC team. So, I can already sense your concerns about getting an accurate pulse as to where my head might be with my heart desperately trying to pull the gambling strings. Fear not. I have no dogs in any race when it comes to sports betting, and taking this dog Monday night will prove it.
Look, I love Philly this year. Love Murray. Love Bradford. Wouldn’t shock me if they both end up in Hawaii for the Pro Bowl this year. I fully expect a playoff berth from them, and also a division crown. All that being said, EAGLES -3 at EVEN money just screams trap game to me. I feel as though Admiral Ackbar and Leia are screaming at the top of their lungs for me to get the hell away from this pick. I just feel a disturbance in the force on this night. By the way, Matt Ryan is my starting fantasy quarterback just to prove to you my level of unwavering faith in this Atlanta offense. I have Atlanta winning their division and Matt Ryan is in MVP discussion by Thanksgiving.
I just think the NFC South is completely up for grabs. All they need is a defense that can hold teams to 24 points per game and then gunsling their way to the division crown. We’ll see. Tevin Coleman is a home run guy, if he gets in open space. He’s not shifty like DeMarco, but he can accelerate with the best of them. If that offensive line can get him truck driving holes every now and again… look out.
Both of these quarterbacks are in for great years and I believe they both will lead their franchises to the playoffs. So, it’s no disrespect to Philly that I’m taking Atlanta, because I truly believe the Georgia Dome will be a tough win for any visitor this season. I’m siding with Vegas on FALCONS (+131) Moneyline currently standing at 36%. That barnburner you wanted on Sunday night? I believe this is the game you were looking for. OVER 55. Done. Lock it down. 70% of the public agrees with me. If it was 65 I’d still take the over without even blinking. I’m so amped for this game on so many levels. This barn is so screwed.
FALCONS +131 & OVER 55
VIKINGS -2.5(-105) & NINERS +2.5(-115)
I’ll be so burnt out from the first game that I can’t even begin to pretend to have the energy left to properly care about this one. I’ll be in full Michael Scott Sugar Crash Mode.
San Francisco simply never recovered from that 2013 NFC Championship meltdown against the Seahawks, did they? That following a Super Bowl title slipping right through there hands the year before might have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. Once Sherman denied Crabtree that was the end of their run. It all fell apart so fast for them last season, and we don’t even know if the bleeding will stop this year.
It’s just a sad state of affairs in the Bay Area right now with concern to football. At least they have their champion Warriors and the Giants are a healthy distraction from what will be a team struggling for seven wins at best.
Minnesota on the other hand is on the uprise in a huge way. Arguably the best runningback in football returns with a quarterback in his second year looking to breakout. This reeks of surprise upstart in a big way. I love this team this year. I have the Vikings winning a wildcard spot and the journey starts in Niner Country. I see a lot of clock melting away in this game due to run plays dominating the gameplans, so getting that OVER 41.5 to come in is as much of a mirage as the playoffs are to San Francisco. Vegas is banking on the same with a mere 39% on the UNDER 41.5.
I normally hate taking a favorite -2.5 because it just seems like such a trappy number, much like a -6.5, -9.5, and -13.5 are to me. I usually will always take a +2.5 or +6.5 dog in football. Not Monday night though. The people are riding the VIKINGS -2.5(-105) at 70% and the VIKINGS -135 Moneyline at 66% and I think the public has it pegged right. Peterson having a year to rest those powerful legs will have only helped fuel his dominating style of running in 2015. If Minnesota’s D can plug up holes and avoid getting torched on deep routes, then I can’t see how this team isn’t a lock for double-digit wins. I have them at 11-5. Turn that around for the Niner record.
VIKINGS -2.5(-105) & UNDER 41.5
** Betting Trend percentages are provided by iOdds, and are current as of Sunday 12:00AM EST **