The NFL Rundown with SBJ: The Primetime Domino Effect

How did Sportsbook Jesus do last week? Remember a few week’s back when The Wayniac out-Wayniaced himself in fantasy football? No? Well, I will let SBJ explain in this week’s rundown.

THE NFL RUNDOWN WITH SPORTSBOOK JESUS

WEEK 6 HINDSIGHT REPORT

TNF

FALCONS @ SAINTS – HDS (0-3)

————————————

1pm EST

BRONCOS @ BROWNS – Push PFP (2-0-1)

BENGALS @ BILLS – PFP (3-0)

CHIEFS @ VIKINGS – PFP (3-0)

TEXANS @ JAGUARS – PDP (3-0)

BEARS @ VIKINGS – HDFC (1-2)

REDSKINS @ JETS – PFP (3-0)

CARDS @ STEELERS – HDS (0-3)

DOLPHINS @ TITANS – PDC (2-1)

1pm TOTALS

PUBLIC (17-6-1)

HOUSE (6-17-1)

IMG_7015

Basically, my reaction after seeing the public hit 71%, and knowing I picked a public side in the biggest SNF action of the year, so far.  Although, unlike Hill’s tears of joy, mine were streaming tears of agony.  Not literally, of course.  I am an emotional guy, though, to be fair.  I’ve teared up at a McDonald’s Christmas commercial before, I’m not even kidding.  The one where the kid leaves a present at the door of the old man’s apartment.  30 seconds is all it can take sometimes, and I’m finished.  I blame my mother’s genetics for that.  By the way, McDonald’s breakfast served round the clock now?  Never thought I’d see the day.  Unreal how spoiled these kids today are with everything.

———————————-

4pm EST

PANTHERS @ SEAHAWKS – HDPC (2-1)

BOLTS @ PACKERS – HDS (0-3)

RAVENS @ NINERS – HDPC (2-1)

4pm TOTALS

PUBLIC (4-5)

HOUSE (5-4)

———————————–

1pm/4pm TOTALS

PUBLIC (21-11-1)

HOUSE (11-21-1)

———————————–

SNF

PATRIOTS @ COLTS – HDPFC (2-1)

————————————

MNF

GMEN @ EAGLES – HFS (0-3)

———————————–

WEEK 6 OVERALL

PUBLIC: (23-18-1)

HOUSE: (18-23-1)

IMG_7016

PRIMETIME COMBOS

SIDE

WEEK 1 – HOUSE/HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 2 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 3 – PUBLIC/PUBLIC

WEEK 4 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 5 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 6 – HOUSE/HOUSE

———————–

PRIMETIME COMBOS

TOTAL POINTS*

WEEK 1 – OVER/UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 2 – UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 3 – UNDER/OVER

WEEK 4 – UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 5 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 6 – OVER/UNDER

*Public riding all overs

IMG_7017

PATRIOTS -8.5 @ COLTS +8.5

OVER/UNDER: 54

IMG_7018

In my first post, I told you that betting with your heart instead of your head is a recipe for sportsbook disaster.  So, what did I do, of course? Sigh.

I’m sorry to say that I went against my own sports betting philosophy with last week’s Sunday nighter.  I let my heart sell me on the Pats laying 9.5 as a piece of cake, even though everything I knew in my gambling gut was telling me otherwise.  I got suckered into all the media hype predicting a blowout, and ignored the 89% riding it, still expecting it to come through.  Yes, it dropped to 77% by kickoff, but it wasn’t enough to make me feel at ease with my decision at all.  The Pats covering every spread, and the Colts not having covered a single spread had all the makings of a huge let down…and boy, was it ever.

The moment Edelman tipped the pass that was returned for a pick six, I knew I was in trouble.  Although, it was the Pats second TD in the second half, which confirmed the OVER 54 by a point, that officially sealed the deal for me to abandon all hope in holding on to this cover.  At 34-21, the combo was now sitting as a People’s Favorite Pick(PFP).  There was no way Vegas would allow that to happen, especially after trailing the public 11-21-1 on the day, up to that point.  I didn’t even watch after the Pats final score.  I knew a backdoor cover was inevitable, as it ultimately proved to be, after that Colts garbage time score with 1:19 left in the game.

A rough start for me to say the least.  When you’re only claim to fame is calling a -370 moneyline, that’s nothing to brag about.  See, between the side, moneyline, and total points on a spread over 3, it’s safe to say the most amount of action is on the side.  Then, total points.  Then, the moneyline.

Remember though, like with that SNF Dallas at New Orleans game, if a spread is 3 or less there could very well be as much (if not more) action on the moneyline as there is on the side bet.  Bottom line, when I go 1-2 and the only thing I called right was a favorite moneyline, I take it as an 0-2 night.

My main focus is to teach you all how to hit side bets.  Our class motto is “Go Vada…call sides.”  Teaching total points is just a bonus, and looking at my record so far, thank God for that.  If my sides record was anywhere close to my total points record, I would expect a ton of academic withdrawals from this course.  By the way, last day for academic withdrawals is Week 9.  After that, you’re locked in for better or worse.

IMG_7019
Mr. Public. Zero…point…zero.

GMEN +3.5(-105) @ EAGLES -3.5(-115)

OVER/UNDER 50.5

IMG_7020

Let’s look at our Week 6 Primetime Combos, just between the side and total points.  This is today’s lesson.  Explaining what I call, the “Primetime Domino Effect”.

                      SNF/MNF

      SIDE – HOUSE/HOUSE

                  DOG/FAVORITE

 POINTS – PUBLIC/HOUSE

                  OVER/UNDER

———————————-

With the people hitting two SNF overs in a row, I knew having that MNF over was toast.  Remember what I said last week about total point primetime combos, when the public has both overs?  No OVER/OVERs, right?  I mentioned that you should have recognized, when the Week 5 NINERS @ GMEN Sunday nighter went over, that the under in the STEELERS @ BOLTS game was as safe as it gets.  Same theory applied to this GMEN @ EAGLES Monday nighter, after the PATRIOTS @ COLTS OVER 54 hit.  Basic fundamentals until proven otherwise, students.  

I thought it was going UNDER 54 & OVER 50.5.  UNDER/OVER.  But once that SNF OVER 54 hit, the OVER 50.5 was a mirage before Monday even began.  That’s the Primetime Domino Effect for ya.

I needed an HFS, if I was going to come out even this week after starting 1-2 on Sunday night.  That was my only hope, and we got it without breaking a sweat.  Thank you, Philadelphia.  I owe you big time.  Three INTs, one fumble lost, and you still win by twenty?  Damn.  Just imagine how dangerous this team will be with no offensive turnovers.

IMG_7021
That’s right! G-Man… I’m dangerous!

See ya Sunday.

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