NFL Sundays with SBJ: Irrelevant jumps and drops

Weeks four and five of the NFL season saw SBJ go a combined 10-2 in his free picks for you and your bankroll. Last week, he admittedly was blinded by his own fandom, and didn’t have that SBJ record in which you have grown accustom. I can only imagine that after years of knowing of him, he bounces back with a perfect weekend. Listen carefully, boys and girls.

2015 SNF/MNF OVERALL RECORD

Public: 15-24 (2-4)

The House: 24-15 (4-2)

Sportsbook Jesus: 24-15 (3-3)

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SIDE

Public: 0-2 (4-9)

Vegas: 2-0 (9-4)

Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (10-3)

MONEYLINE 

Public: 1-1 (7-6)

Vegas: 1-1 (6-7)

Sportsbook Jesus: 2-0 (9-4)

TOTAL POINTS

Public: 1-1 (4-9)

Vegas: 1-1 (9-4)

Sportsbook Jesus: 0-2 (5-8)

Let’s say you take an OVER 51.5 a few hours before kickoff, but then you’re kicking yourself that you didn’t wait to bet it, as you see it settle at 49.5 by kickoff.  There is absolutely no need to get all bent out of shape in that situation.  Generally speaking, between those two numbers, you didn’t make a crucial mistake.  Here’s why.

49.5…50…50.5…51…51.5.  Basically, they’re all the same number, because you’ll most likely need 52 points regardless.  You with me?  No?  Let me break it down real quick.  This is the lesson of the day.  Recognizing irrelevant jumps and drops in numbers.

Excluding the least likely two point safety and two point conversion scenarios, the only two scoring possibilities are the seven (TD w/ extra point) and three (FG) point scores.  So, you take an over 49.5, and by kickoff you see it climb to 51.5.  A full two points.  Should you be patting yourself on the back that you got it at 49.5, and didn’t get stuck with the 51.5?  Not really.  Essentially, they are the exact same number.  You would need 52 points, which is seven TDs (with extra points) and one field goal, to win either the OVER 49.5 or the OVER 51.5.  The two point jump doesn’t matter.  So, if you like an OVER 49.5, but you get scared off when it climbs to 51.5…you just psyched yourself out for no good reason.  The change in the number didn’t really change what you’ll need to win.  It looks worse than it really is.

Sure, if one of those seven extra points is a miss yielding a 51-point final, then having a 51.5 would lose.  This is why this is a general principle, which relies on no extenuating scoring circumstances.  Yes, six TDs (with extra points) and three FGs equals 51…nine total scoring possessions.  Yes, five TDs(with extra points) and five FGs equals 50…10 scoring possessions.  So, this isn’t a bulletproof theory by any stretch, but the odds of a game ending with 50 or 51 total points on more than eight scoring possessions is not commonplace.  It’s usually going to be eight scoring possessions max, which would bypass the 50 or 51 and land square on 52.  Again, not gospel, but chances are having an OVER 49.5 or OVER 51.5 is not going to give you an edge the majority of the time.

Although, this being the first year that extra points are longer kicks, it will be interesting to see how that change in kicking distance effects this theory going forward.  We’ll have to see at the end of the year, how these extra point percentages matchup with previous years.  For now, I still think it’s a reliable take on jumps and drops in certain scenarios. 

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SNF

EAGLES +3 @ PANTHERS -3

OVER/UNDER: 45.5

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This is exactly how I get, whenever I see a House over, with more than 75% on the under.  I probably won’t be able to sleep a wink tonight, in anticipation of this trend’s final percentage.  It’s like waiting for Christmas morning for me.  Nothing is better than having a House over at 25% or less, in my opinion.  And this OVER 45.5 is currently at 12%?!  12?!

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Oh my God! Oh my God! Oh my God!

Now, calm down.  We all know how humans apparently are psychologically geared to jump on overs, right?  So, we shouldn’t expect this under to stay at 88%, as much as I’d love it to. We also can’t assume it won’t flip, if all the Sunday bets drive the majority of action on the over, which has been the case in all of our primetime matchups thus far.  Let’s just cross our fingers, say a little prayer, and hope this OVER 45.5 stays with The House.  If it does….oooooh, baby.  I’m 100% sold.

The last two Primetime Combos have gone OVER/UNDER, with the public on both overs, per usual.  I like this week to make it three in a row, only if The House keeps this SNF over.  Alright, enough total points talk.  Let’s get to the real action.  What side are we riding with this week?

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Interesting coincidence, Nina. With The House riding it’s first over of the year, I guess I could go with the PFHC or PFC, if it settles there, right?  That’s extremely tempting, and definitely seems like a solid play, don’t ya think?  How much of the public is riding on PANTHERS -3, by the way?

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Let me check.  Close.  62% actually.  Good guess.  Might be 60% by kickoff, though.  Hmm.  Not that hefty of a majority, which I like.  That’s really not bad at all, to be honest.  Plus, The House has the Carolina moneyline?  Damn.  That’s a pretty sexy pick, I’m not gonna lie.

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“I hear you whispering.  Planning on teasing something?” – Chip Kelly

“No, man.  We’re not.” – SBJ

“Plan on Panthers on SNF -3?” – Chip Kelly

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“What?!  Nooo.” – SBJ

Take it easy, Chip.  I ain’t going anywhere.  Panther wins after five games…ready?  Jaguars, Texans, Saints(without Brees), & the Bucs.  Then they had two weeks to prepare for a sputtering Seahawks team, who hadn’t found their groove yet.  The combined record of all five of those teams after last week was 9-20.  Not one with a winning record.  The Eagles opponent record?  18-16.  So, I’m supposed to feel intimidated by Carolina, because they’re an undefeated team up to this point?

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 You know what I like.

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EAGLES +145 & OVER 45.5.

CLASSIFICATION: HDPS with a possible HDS.  I’ll be floored to see it go off the board as a PDC or PDHC.  Please, public.  Don’t wise up to this trap game.  I’m begging you.

JUMP SHIP AUDIBLE: If this OVER 45.5 gets pounded by the people, and flips to a public over, then we audible to the under 45.5, and stick with the Eagles to win.  What’s the Over/Under on Eagle offensive turnovers this week?  Probably 2.5(-130), if I had to guess.  We’ll take the under at +110.  Can’t pass up that kind of value.  Come on, Bradford!  Two at the most!  Is that too much to ask, for the love of God?!

———————————

MNF

RAVENS +8(-105) @ CARDINALS -8(-115)

OVER/UNDER: 49

IMG_7144This line opened at CARDINALS -7.5.  Then, I saw it at CARDINALS -9 during the week. Now, it’s at CARDINALS -8.  Just like I was explaining above, this is irrelevant movement to me.  From 7.5 to 9, you’re going to need one TD (w/ an extra point) and one FG to cover.  That equals a 10 point win, and covers all three of those spreads.  So, don’t get depressed, if you grabbed the CARDINALS -9, Tyson.  What does SBJ always say.  You’ll push the 9 at worst.  Trust me.

The public currently has Arizona to cover the eight at 65% with 62% on the moneyline, as well.  They also predictably have the OVER 49 at 67%.  This might be our first OVER/OVER week, but only if The House holds on to that SNF over.  We have to be aware of that as a definite possibility.

I love taking a spread higher than seven on a team coming off a loss, and hosting a primetime game.  The loss is still fresh in the public’s mind, which is why they only have it at a modest 65%.  This could easily drop into the 50s, by Monday night, and I would be uncontrollably giddy, if the people flip it to Baltimore covering the eight.  Either way, I’m taking the Cards to win by two touchdowns at the very least.

On a personal side note, Carson Palmer is making his first fantasy start for me, so I got a lot riding on my faith in him putting on an offensive clinic in front of a national audience.  Go get ’em, Carson!  I want a four TD night, but don’t hesitate to reel it in, if you start creeping too close to that over, ok?

If there is one week that could be an OVER/OVER primetime combo, being that The House is still on the SNF over, this is it.  I’m not gonna bite.  Although, if it does happen, I’ll be freaking out more than Marcee Tidwell, as I watch this Cards cover collapse before my very eyes.  Show me the money, Arizona!  Thanks in advance.

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CARDINALS -8(-115) & UNDER 49.

CLASSIFICATION: PFC with a possible flip to HFPS.  Anyway it slices, we ride with Arizona and the under.  No audibles.

Class dismissed.  Good luck.

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