The NFL Rundown with SBJ: Anybody who wants out… can get out

Our very own SBJ is back, providing full disclosure on where he went right and where he went wrong with last week’s primetime picks. Sit back and get prepared for tomorrow’s lesson. 

WEEK 8 HINDSIGHT REPORT

TNF

DOLPHINS @ PATRIOTS – PFC (2-1)

————————————

9:30am EST

LIONS @ CHIEFS – HFC (1-2)

1pm EST

VIKINGS @ BEARS – PFC (2-1)

BUCS @ FALCONS – HDS (0-3)

GMEN @ SAINTS – PushHFC (1-1-1)

NINERS @ RAMS – PFHC (1-2)

CARDS @ BROWN – PFP (3-0)

BENGALS @ STEELERS – P(PK)C (2-1)

BOLTS @ RAVENS – PDHFP (2-1)

TITANS @ TEXANS – PFHC (1-2)

9:30 & 1pm TOTALS

PUBLIC (13-13-1)

HOUSE (13-13-1)

————————————-

4pm EST

JETS @ RAIDERS – HDFC (2-1)

SEAHAWKS @ COWBOYS – HDS (0-3)

4pm TOTALS

PUBLIC (2-4)

HOUSE (4-2)

————————————-

1pm/4pm TOTALS

PUBLIC (15-17-1)

HOUSE (17-15-1)

————————————-

SNF

PACKERS @ BRONCOS – HDS (0-3)

————————————-

MNF

COLTS @ PANTHERS – HDPFC (2-1)

————————————-

WEEK 8 TOTALS

PUBLIC (19-22-1)

HOUSE (22-19-1)

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PRIMETIME COMBOS

SIDE

WEEK 1 – HOUSE/HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 2 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 3 – PUBLIC/PUBLIC

WEEK 4 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 5 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 6 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 7 – PUBLIC/PUBLIC

WEEK 8 – HOUSE/HOUSE

———————–

PRIMETIME COMBOS

TOTAL POINTS*

WEEK 1 – OVER/UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 2 – UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 3 – UNDER/OVER

WEEK 4 – UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 5 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 6 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 7 – UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 8 – UNDER/OVER

*Public riding all overs

Is there some flu bug going around the sportsbook campus, or something?   Class looks a little thin today.  Did we have some withdrawals after my third 3-3 week in a row?  Wouldn’t shock me.  Well, this is it, class. Last day for academic withdrawals, loyal followers.  You must choose…but choose wisely.  Just know…this blog is going to the playoffs.

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PACKERS -2.5(-115) @ BRONCOS +2.5(-105)

OVER/UNDER: 46u*(-115)

*Under

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That covert favorite dog lesson was, without question, the most embarrassing one yet for me.  The Sunday post went up at 9am EST, and two hours later the -125 on the Denver side was wiped clean off the board.  Vegas just playing the strings of my heart like a violin once again.  I feel like such a poor sap.  

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Not only did the value vanish, but by kickoff it had flipped to PACKERS -2.5(-115).  We know how I feel about double favorites, right?  Plus, I already had previously taken Green Bay as a double favorite in Week 2, so you damn well better believe I wasn’t doing a double favorite with the exact same team!  What are ya nuts?!  That’s just sportsbook blasphemy as far as I’m concerned. So to see that do a complete 180 on me was beyond gut-wrenching.  

It’s like thinking you’re in the mist of some flirty texting romance with a girl at school you have a huge crush on, and then you realize she’s actually been ironic the entire time, with a bunch of her classmates, and boyfriend all in on the joke at your expense.

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It’s like having your heart ripped right out of your chest as a digital army looks on in elation at your emotional destruction.  It’s enough to make you so guarded, to such an extent, that you don’t know if you can ever dare trust the genuine love of another value line again, as it drops…

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“It drops right there….and it continues right here, because what I think my friend SBJ is trying to say is that, ‘True favorites are blind’.”

Thank you, Vince.  Way to lock it down with a perfect sum up of the situation.  I might have elaborated a little too much with that analogy.  It was just a tough loss, ya know?  Sorry about that.  Where was I?  Right.  Getting duped by extreme value swings.  Almost forgot what I was talking about for a second.

This is also our first value dip in the total points column, which was bound to hit after the devalued side did not. This theory applies more to second half action, but I love taking one devalued number paired with a number with value increase.  If I see a favorite second half side number at (-120), which I like, then I’ll take the total points (EVEN) number without any hesitation at all, and vice versa.  When the BRONCOS +2.5 (-105) was coming in, I could already tell that the UNDER 46 (-115) was a lock just based on the -105/-115 value combo.  There’s your first taste of second half action.  Again, we’ll get into that later, when I feel you are ready to handle it.

COLTS +5 @ PANTHERS -5

OVER/UNDER: 45

IMG_8256

Love the kicks on Monday night, Cam.  Shake and bake, baby!  Your defense almost gave me a heart attack at the end there, though.  If that 4th down reviewed catch on the Colts final drive in regulation is ruled incomplete, then I would have had another 3-0 Monday.  These last two Mondays, I’ll tell ya.  Don’t know how much more my fragile heart can take with these late finishes.

That second MNF over finally hit by the slimmest of replay booth margins, and the PLAN B switch to COLTS +5, when the people jumped on Carolina late, worked to perfection.

I think that comeback by Luck is just what the doctor ordered for that team to right their sinking ship.  Especially in sluggish weather, I was super impressed.  Keep that tempo going, guys.  I expected this from the get go.  You’re the AFC version of my Eagles right now.  Drop the hammer, and take control of this division.  It shouldn’t be that difficult to do.  I expect big changes from them this week, even with a stellar Denver defense coming to town.

See ya, Sunday.

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