NFL Rundown with SBJ: You’re killin’ me, Antonio!

After a couple of rough weeks, SBJ was back in the driver’s seat last week in Prime Time. Pay attention as this week SBJ reviews his main lesson of the season — the importance of trends as we head to the playoffs. 

WEEK 13 HINDSIGHT REPORT

TNF

PACKERS @ LIONS – PFHP (2-1)

———————————-

1pm EST

NINERS @ BEARS – HDC (1-2)

BENGALS @ BROWNS – PFHC (1-2)

JAGUARS @ TITANS – PFP (3-0)

TEXANS @ BILLS – HFS (0-3)

RAVENS @ DOLPHINS – HDFS (0-3)

SEAHAWKS @ VIKINGS – PFP (3-0)

CARDINALS @ RAMS – PFC (2-1)

FALCONS @ BUCS – HFPS (1-2)

JETS @ GMEN – HFS (0-3)

1pm TOTALS

PUBLIC: (11-16)

HOUSE: (16-11)

———————————–

4pm EST

PANTHERS @ SAINTS – PFHP (2-1)

BRONCOS @ BOLTS – PFHC (1-2)

CHIEFS @ RAIDERS – PFHP (2-1)

EAGLES @ PATRIOTS – HDC (1-2)

4pm TOTALS

PUBLIC: (6-6)

HOUSE: (6-6)

———————————-

1pm/4pm TOTALS

PUBLIC: (17-22)

HOUSE: (22-17)

———————————–

SNF

COLTS @ STEELERS – HFC (1-2)

———————————–

MNF 

COWBOYS @ REDSKINS – HDS (0-3)

———————————-

WEEK 13 TOTALS

PUBLIC: (20-28)

HOUSE: (28-20)

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PRIMETIME COMBOS

SIDE

WEEK 1 – HOUSE/HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 2 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 3 – PUBLIC/PUBLIC

WEEK 4 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 5 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 6 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 7 – PUBLIC/PUBLIC

WEEK 8 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 9 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 10 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 11 – HOUSE/PUSH

WEEK 12 – HOUSE/PUBLIC

WEEK 13 – HOUSE/HOUSE

———————–

PRIMETIME COMBOS

TOTAL POINTS*

WEEK 1 – OVER/UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 2 – UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 3 – UNDER/OVER

WEEK 4 – UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 5 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 6 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 7 – UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 8 – UNDER/OVER

WEEK 9 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 10 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 11 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 12 – OVER/OVER

WEEK 13 – OVER/UNDER

*Public riding all overs

We have four more weeks of the regular season to go, students.  Excited for playoff action?  Me too.

I told you that this course was mainly to teach you how to read SNF and MNF trends for side betting action.  So, how are we doing?

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65%.  Razor sharp, like Rza, son!  What I tell you?  You don’t mess with the SBJ on side bets.  Now, total points?  

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That’s a totally different story.  I’m a trainwreck in that department.  But you did learn a valuable lesson.  Unders hit.  Bet more unders than overs.  Look at Vegas.  They’ve had the under every time, and between the three of us they are the only one with a winning record.

We also learned to especially take unders after a total points Primetime Combo starts off with an over.  Out of the eight times the SNF over has hit, the MNF under has followed up seven times.

I may have taken a total points beating this year at 48%, but you learned a valuable lesson.  That’s all that matters in the end.

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COLTS +10(-115) @ STEELERS -10(-105)

OVER/UNDER: 50.5

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Remember the football stadium scene from The Dark Knight Rises? Where Hines Ward is returning a kickoff for a touchdown, just as the field is being demolished into a man-made Grand Canyon?

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Well, that is exactly what it felt like having the over in that Sunday night game, as Antonio Brown took a late punt return for a pointless score.  I wanted to scream at him, like Jimmy Dugan at Evelyn in “A League of Their Own”, for constantly missing her cutoff man.  

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ANTONIO!

I had a perfect 3-0 night on my hands, Antonio.  I drafted you in 2011, when no one knew who you were.  I drafted you as my first round pick last year, when everyone said that was a reach.  You’ve held a starting spot on my fantasy roster three of the last five seasons, and this is the thanks I get? Two touchdowns wasn’t enough for ya?  You just had to get one more, huh?  I’ll let it go only because you were my super stud last year, you’re going in my league’s imaginary Hall of Fame wearing my jersey, and you’re just so damn adorable.

Another SNF over?  Five straight overs on SNF, and four out of the last five weeks have a total points Primetime Combo of OVER/UNDER?  Crazy!  Well, you already know what I’m doing on SNF, right?

If you have been losing out on these Sunday night overs along with me, at least we are saving our behinds with our Primetime Combo cardinal rule, right?  I hope so, if you are paying attention.

Other than that, the theory regarding team records worked to perfection.  Total cake walk side bet.  You may have thought the same theory was going to work with a 8-4 Minnesota team at a 10-2 Arizona team on this week’s TNF double digit spread, huh?  Obviously, not the case.

First of all, don’t bet Thursday night.  It’s just too much of a crap shoot with concern to relying on the trends to determine your bets, because there isn’t a ton of action on the games compared to Sunday nights and Monday nights.  That’s why it’s common to see a Thursday night game break more favorably towards the public.  Vegas really doesn’t care, to be perfectly honest.

A lack of action is also why you saw Vegas grant the people its first People’s Favorite Pick on MNF, since Week 2.  Ravens at Browns?  I mean, come on.  Outside of a few gambling degenerates, like Jimmy Kimmel’s cousin Sal, Pete Rose and myself, how much did Vegas really take it on the chin?  50 bucks maybe?  You see my point?  More money on games means more value in the trend numbers, and vice versa.  That’s why this course is strictly a SNF and MNF betting course.  It’s great practice for playoff action trend analysis.

COWBOYS +2(-115) @ REDSKINS -2(-105)

OVER/UNDER: 43

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After going 2-1 on Sunday night, I knew this was a 5-1 week for me.  Number One, it was Larry Bird’s birthday.  Did you honestly think I wasn’t hitting a three on Basketball Jesus’ freakin’ birthday?  You know me better than that.  Number two, the Value Flip Theory.  Remember a few weeks ago, I dabbled into one of my second half betting theories about taking one value at (-115), and one at (-105)?  Well, that’s how I knew I was in good shape.  The (-105) SNF side hit, so I knew the (-115) MNF side was bound to hit.  Number three, I was due.  Plain and simple.

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“Everybody’s due.”

See ya, Sunday.

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