The NFL Rundown: That’s all she wrote

SBJ’s first go ’round as the Wayniac Nation gambling guru had it’s ups and downs, but the bottom line was that he finished up. And I have a secret that Vegas doesn’t tell you: that’s all that matters in the world of gambling, folks. 

This is the Final Rundown. I keep thinking of that Europe commercial with the Final Countdown as I read this, so enjoy. This is SBJ’s final piece of the NFL season, so make sure to give him a solid sendoff.

SBJ’S FINAL RUNDOWN

 

WEEK 17 HINDSIGHT REPORT

1pm

JETS @ BILLS – HDS (0-3)

PATRIOTS @ DOLPHINS – HDC (1-2)

RAVENS @ BENGALS – HDFS (0-3)

SAINTS @ FALCONS – HDPS (1-2)

JAGUARS @ TEXANS – PFC (2-1)

STEELERS @ BROWNS – PFC (2-1)

TITANS @ COLTS – PFC (2-1)

REDSKINS @ COWBOYS – PDP (3-0)

LIONS @ BEARS – PFC (2-1)

EAGLES @ GMEN – HDPC (2-1)

1pm TOTALS

PUBLIC: (15-15)

HOUSE: (15-15)

————————————-

4pm EST

BUCS @ PANTHERS – PFHP (2-1)

RAIDERS @ CHIEFS – HDFS (1-2)

BOLTS @ BRONCOS – HDPFC (2-1)

RAMS @ NINERS – HDS (0-3)

SEAHAWKS @ CARDS – HDPS (1-2)

4pm TOTALS

PUBLIC: (6-9)

HOUSE: (9-6)

————————————-

SNF

VIKINGS @ PACKERS – HDS (0-3)

————————————-

OVERALL 

PUBLIC: (21-27)

HOUSE: (27-21)

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PRIMETIME COMBOS

SIDE

WEEK 1 – HOUSE/HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 2 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 3 – PUBLIC/PUBLIC

WEEK 4 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 5 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 6 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 7 – PUBLIC/PUBLIC

WEEK 8 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 9 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 10 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 11 – HOUSE/PUSH

WEEK 12 – HOUSE/PUBLIC

WEEK 13 – HOUSE/HOUSE

WEEK 14 – PUBLIC/PUBLIC

WEEK 15 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 16 – PUBLIC/HOUSE

WEEK 17 – HOUSE

SNF

PUBLIC: 8-9

HOUSE: 9-8

MNF

PUBLIC: 4-12-1

HOUSE: 12-4-1

———————–

PRIMETIME COMBOS

TOTAL POINTS*

WEEK 1 – OVER/UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 2 – UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 3 – UNDER/OVER

WEEK 4 – UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 5 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 6 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 7 – UNDER/UNDER

WEEK 8 – UNDER/OVER

WEEK 9 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 10 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 11 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 12 – OVER/OVER

WEEK 13 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 14 – UNDER/OVER

WEEK 15 – OVER/OVER

WEEK 16 – OVER/UNDER

WEEK 17 – UNDER

SNF

PUBLIC: 10-7

HOUSE: 7-10

MNF

PUBLIC: 5-12

HOUSE: 12-5

*Public riding all overs

2015 SNF/MNF OVERALL RECORD

Public: 43-58-1 (0-3) 43%

The House: 58-43-1 (3-0) 57%

Sportsbook Jesus: 58-43-1 (3-0) 57%

IMG_2222

SIDE

Public: 0-1 (12-21-1) 36%

Vegas: 1-0 (21-12-1) 64%

Sportsbook Jesus: 1-0 (21-12-1) 64%

MONEYLINE 

Public: 0-1 (16-18) 47%

Vegas: 1-0 (18-16) 53%

Sportsbook Jesus: 1-0 (20-14) 59%

TOTAL POINTS

Public: 0-1 (15-19) 44%

Vegas: 1-0 (19-15) 56%

Sportsbook Jesus: 1-0 (17-17) 50%

Well, here we are ladies and gents.  The last day of class before your final exam, which starts at 4:30 pm tomorrow.  Your final will consist of 33 questions. 3 questions per game, with a total of 11 games ending on February 7th.  It’s a long exam, I know.

Yes, this is where I leave you.  I won’t hold your hand this last month.  It’s all on you, now.  Take what we have learned over the last 4 months, and make some serious bank in this postseason.

In the Week 15 Rundown and Week 16 Picks pieces, we dissected the public versus Vegas winning percentages.  Now, let’s take a look at how we stacked up, in terms of which spots gave us more success with the side and total points action.

Well, I’m happy to report that we matched The House in overall record with a sharp worthy mark of 57%.  More importantly, we matched Vegas on the side action with an impressive 64%.  Let’s not forget that we weren’t having our pick of the litter among all the 12 to 16 games every week, right? 

We were stuck with whatever prime time threw at us, and the matchups got tougher and tougher as the flex schedule came into play near the end of the season.  It’s not like we piggy-backed on suicide pool matchups, ya get me?  Anyone can call a Jaguars at Patriots spread, or a Niners at Cardinals line, when there’s a 28-32 team slate to cherry pick from every week.  Let’s see them try 64% on sides, with some of the games we were dealing with, ya know?

You definitely have to take our degree of difficulty into account when evaluating just how impressive our winning percentage was with these prime time games.  If our picks were judged like an NCAA Division I Football strength of schedule, we’re SEC baby.  Go Vada!  Call Sides!

As you obviously noticed, it wasn’t like we rode Vegas’ coattails on every bet from day one.  My method is definitely contrarian in nature, with concern to the trend percentages, but not in every case.  Let’s check the final totals with the public and The House to see what I’m talking about.

IMG_2211

Surprisingly, on Sunday nights we actually ended the year taking more public action on the side bets than with The House.  That 53% isn’t by much, but it shows that we didn’t just simply grab Vegas’ side on all the action every time.  That wouldn’t have been much of a class to teach, would it?  It would have taken just one column to sum up that strategy.  

I’m proud to say we tied The House in overall record, and in the side action…all while taking more action with the people on SNF.  This is mainly a contrarian course in avoiding the side that holds the majority of the gambling cash on it, but not in every scenario.  We try to pick our spots with the public here and there.  We were striving for a better record than Vegas, and you can’t accomplish a feat like that if you’re handcuffed to all of their picks, right?

IMG_2212

On Monday nights, it was as contrarian as you can get though.  We stuck with The House 82% of the time on side action, and of that 82% we won 87% of the time.  We went 11-2-1 on MNF side bets.  

(Satisfied sigh)

IMG_2213

Here is where we should have trusted the people a lot more than we did.  We took a hefty 71% of the SNF total points action with The House, but only won 42% of the time going 5-7 on those nights. Ouch. That’s a terrible mix yielding extremely poor results.  Of the mere 5 times we grabbed the people’s over, we went 3-2.  Clearly nothing to brag about.

IMG_2214

Just like with the SNF total points, we were predominantly taking the under everytime at 82%, which is the exact percentage that we rode with Vegas on the MNF side bets.  And just like those nights, it granted us a solid performance at 71%.  10-4…7 of those wins thanks to our tried and true “Primetime Domino Effect” Theory.

So, as you can see, we stayed with The House for the most part, but really should have trusted the public with their overs on Sunday nights a bit more.  You live and learn, I guess.

VIKINGS +3(-115) @ PACKERS -3(-105)

OVER/UNDER: 44

IMG_2219

This was smooth sailing the entire game.  I never doubted it for an instant.  So sweet to have this class end on a House Dog Special.  I couldn’t have written a more fitting ending.  Not to mention, I called the Vikings 11-5 record, and the Niners 5-11 record right on the nose.  Throwin’ darts on those two picks, and called both Vikings and Texans playoff berths?  I don’t know too many experts who had those two teams pegged as playoff bound franchises before Week 1, but this one did.  Yeah, I’m an expert.  I said it.

The Eagles and Falcons were huge disappointments to me, which reminds me….

IMG_2223

We are down to three, people!  The Patriots, Falcons, and Cowboys all were eliminated by 4pm.  Only the Texans made good.  Then, at 4pm both the Panthers and Seahawks stamped their tickets to the the next round for the eternal fandom love of SBJ.

I know I said that I’d announce my new team in this final post, but I’m enjoying this elimination tournament way too much.  It reminds me of the Wrestlemania IV Championship Tournament, and I can’t wait to see who wins the SBJ belt.

So, Houston…you’re up first today at 4pm.  Seattle…you state your case on Sunday.  Carolina…you might very well be hosting a SBJ Championship Finals showdown, if Seattle can pull this one out in Minnesota this weekend….or if the Texans and Seahawks both lose, then I’ll be sporting Panther blue by Monday morning.  There it is, boys.  Claim it.  As Rex would say, “Do you want me, or not!  Do you understand? There’s a price to pay!”

I’d like to close by saying that this is the best group of future degenerate gamblers I’ve ever had the pleasure of enlightening, and I wish you nothing but luck in the next few weeks of exciting NFL action.

IMG_2220

It should also be stated that I was honored to be a part of Wayniac Nation. The Wayniac is a true and dear friend of mine, and the fact that he allowed me the freedom to bring my extremely unorthodox style of creativity to his digital table was nothing less than a blessing.  I know I can be a pain in the ass with lengthy columns, endless screenshots, charts, and photo headers that weren’t always sports related, but I’m glad you all believed in me enough to let me stick around as long as you did. I hope I helped make your wallets a bit fatter in a comedically entertaining way.

Thanks to all my followers for the support.  I know I’m not the best writer, but I’m just happy I started the process to hopefully help make me a better one down the line.

Goodnight, good luck on your final exam, and I’ll see you next semester.

(Loud exaggerated fake sneeze)TAKE UNDERS! Excuse me.

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