NFL SUNDAYS WITH SBJ: FLIPS, FLOPS, FLIP FLOPS

So, how many freshmen in here clocked my Week 1 picks at 1-8. Ok, now, how many sophomores had it at 2-7? Most of you? That’s what I suspected. Let’s review just the MNF Primetime Combo.

All betting trends are current as of Monday night at 11pm EST, and brought to you by http://www.scoresandodds.com

With the people having already taken the Sunday nighter, we knew the House was taking one of these two sides, right? I should see everyone’s head nodding, yes? Can ya hear me in the back! Hello?! Good. That should have been a given.

Once the public had hit its second Side & Moneyline bet in a row with that STEELERS -2.5(-115), we knew that public RAMS -2.5(-105) would be toast.

So, our first audible for that Rams @ Niners game was switching to the Rams Moneyline at the very least, which means we get credit for the NINERS +2.5(-115) Side bet, but the audible didn’t technically imply the Niners Moneyline straight up.

Even though, we know that on football spreads that are at the -3 mark or less, the Moneyline numbers have peak significance, in terms of swaying the usual level of financial influence the Side column holds more towards the Moneyline column. This proves that we can safely say that we definitely would have switched off the RAMS -135, and had the Niners to win straight up.

Then, with our trusted “Golden Rule of the Primetime Domino Effect”, we knew that the Rams/Niners OVER 44(-115) had a 20 percent chance of hitting from our experience last season. Plus, our first public under?! How were we all not going to celebrate with them on their first under action after all of last season?! Are you serious?! I couldn’t be prouder of them. Week 1…People’s Under. There’s something in my eye. I’m not tearing up, I swear.

I understand that betting on the people to have hit a Total Points back-to-back (on a Monday night, no less) seems like an apparent trend strategy paradox considering the whole basis of why “The Primetime Domino Effect” contrarian strategy even exists in the first place, is to cash in with the House on Monday nights following SNF Public Overs. I get it. I know.

So, if the people staying with the MNF Under made you assume I would have said to just stay with our original call of a House OVER44 (-115) I totally understand. I do.

But the Golden Rule is the Golden Rule. 80% is 80%. End of story. A OVER/OVER  is our least likely candidate to hit, in terms of SNF/MNF Primetime Combo end of the year totals regardless of whether the people or Vegas is on it. Monday night is Under Night.

(Cue Week 2 MNF Over Karma)

That double audible left us with a 2-1 match, that really would have been 3-0 knowing Vegas wasn’t starting the primetime year at 0-3 in the Moneyline column, like me.

Plus, they weren’t paying out their third Moneyline bet in a row at 62 percent. So, we’re giving ourselves credit for a 2-1 night, in that second Monday nighter, but we really swept it at 3-0 putting us at a 4-5 overall winning percentage right out of the gate. But we’ll chill with a 3-6 start along with Vegas. I’m sure being tied with the House won’t be considered being in bad shape down the line.

Let’s tackle our first list of 2nd Half terminology. It’s really simple. There are four types of 2nd Half results I have defined below, when comparing the outcomes of the 1st Half betting action on Side and Total Points with the 2nd Half Side & Total Points action.

I want you to see what the 1st Half Side & Totals Points action is set at in this SNF game by kickoff. Then, at the half, I want you to take note of which 1st Half Side won and what came in on the 1st Half Total Points action. Still with me?

Now, check out the Side & Total Points lines for the 2nd Half. After the game, label the 2nd Half Side & Total Points bets accordingly between the four 2nd Half result terms below.

1) THE FLIP

The flip is simple. Actually, all these terms are pretty self explanatory to be perfectly honest. When the 1st Half Side action winner loses the 2nd Half Side action, but the same Total Points result occurred in both halves…that is called “The Flip”.

2) THE FLOP

This is when the Side winner of the 1st Half also wins the 2nd Half, but the Total Points switches to the opposite result of the 1st Half Total Points winner between the over and under.

3) THE FLIP FLOP

This is when the Side and Total Points winners of the 1st Half both lose in the 2nd Half.

4) THE DEJA VU

The same Side & Total Points winners of the 1st Half both hit in the 2nd Half.

So, that’s it for your homework assignment this week. Just label the 2nd Half results based off of the 1st Half results. Then, we’ll break everything down in next week’s Rundown. For now, just learn the four basic 2nd Half scenarios. Now, let’s get right into our rebound week. Right, Vegas? Right.


PACKERS -1.5 @ VIKINGS +1.5

OVER/UNDER 43[under(-115)]




FANTASY STARTERS:

NONE



FANTASY OPPONENTS:

NONE

EMOTIONAL RED FLAG ALERT: 0


VIKINGS EVEN & OVER 42.5(-105)

OPEN CLASSIFICATION:

HOUSE DOG SPECIAL(HDS)



FANTASY FACTOR:

NONE


JUMP SHIP AUDIBLE:

We’re going straight House on everything in this one . I’m willing to bet our overall winning percentage will rise by at least seven percent, if we stay with Vegas on all the Side and/or significant Moneyline numbers(which will be the case for both games this week), and Total Points.

Plus, it’s even more likely we jump 14 percent from 33  percent to 47 percent by next Rundown. I think it’s the simplest, but more importantly, the wisest strategy for us this week following last weeks shellacking by the public.




EAGLES +3(EVEN) @ BEARS -3(-120)

OVER/UNDER: 42.5[under(-115)]




FANTASY STARTERS:

NONE


FANTASY OPPONENTS:

NONE

EMOTIONAL RED FLAG ALERT: 10


BEARS -3(-120) & UNDER 42.5(-115)

OPEN CLASSIFICATION:

HOUSE DOG SPECIAL(HDS)


FANTASY FACTOR:

NONE


JUMP SHIP AUDIBLE:

Even if the people take Chicago’s side(unless the public already won this week’s Sunday nighter, then to avoid an unlikely PUBLIC/PUBLIC Side Primetime Combo, we ride with the House Side), I’m sticking with the BEARS -3(-120), which is currently a Double Favorite, along with the House Total Points…even though, we all know how I feel about Double Favorites. Hey, I’m at an ERF Level 10 for this one, what do ya want from me? But again, we only stay with a People’s Favorite if the House won the SNF Side.

An easy class assignment with an easy trend game plan. Enjoy it now, because we’ll be droppin’ the hammer next week.

Goodnight, and good luck.


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